The four best teams in the Pac-12 played amongst themselves last Sunday, though I’m loath to say that doesn’t include Utah. USC 73, UCLA 65 was so critical to the state of our dissolving conference that I watched that game despite knowing the score already.
My takeaway from last weekend’s games — whereas you might’ve already been sold — was Colorado deserved their #5. After the Buffaloes beat the Bay Area teams, they’re worthy of #3, too.
Against the resurgent Cal, and perennial conference kingpin Stanford, Colorado showed up with the chilly confidence of championship teams. The Buffaloes were so good, I put a call into Coach Payne, because I want to ask how she intends to prevent them from peaking too soon.
It’s possible Colorado can’t get too high, with team balance preventing them from flying too close to the sun. For instance, against Cal, Colorado got 19 and 4 from Vonleh, 4-of-7 3FG from Formann, 12 and 12 from Miller. Two days later, 13 and 4 from Sharrod, 12 and 5 from Nolan, 12 and 6 and 5 and 4 from Wetta (plus another double from Miller, while the collective production offsets Formann’s 3-for-14).
Wetta even got their only blocked shot that afternoon. 4-of-5 shooting, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, 1 block. That’s what shows up in the boxscore, while Coach Payne calls her the best defender in the conference.
Colorado brushed Stanford off like cardinal-colored dust. +19 fast break points, +17 points after turnovers, +12 in the paint. Sorta makes you feel for the Oregons, who visit the Bay Area this weekend. Stanford will be loaded for duck Friday. (The Red Cross needs blood, so the Stanford Blood Center offered donors a chance to score tickets to Oregon at Stanford in a drawing tomorrow. I thought: I should do my civic duty here… wait a second, why do I have to ‘win’ tickets, when I’d rather be at Oregon State at Cal, anyway. It is time to give blood again, in any event.)
I said in October that the toughest road trip in the Pac-12 was up the Rocky Mountains and maintaining altitude in Salt Lake. This weekend, it’s the best travel pair in the conference — the southern Californians — coming to visit.
I asked to talk to Coach Gottlieb because USC is running a fearsome gauntlet (but for mistakenly saying I’m not working on a deadline, they seemed to have lost my phone number — not like the old days, when Coach Gottlieb was at UC Santa Barbara and I was the only reporter in the building). Juju Watkins carried the Trojans past UCLA, but their next five opponents are the mountain teams, the Washingtons, and the Cardinal.
USC isn’t in tiptop shape without Rayah Marshall. Will the Trojans win none, one, or two, I shan’t predict (it’s enough to say USC is one of the best teams of the country, and their swagger rivals LSU). Colorado is, at the moment, the class of the Pac-12, while Utah demonstrated hidden depth vs. Cal Sunday.
Dean Oliver’s groundbreaking 2003 “Basketball on Paper” was the first great book about basketball analytics. I’ve read Seth Parnow’s “The Midrange Theory” (2021) twice — it’s an outstanding follow-up to Oliver (basketball analytics has progressed like speculative fiction since 2003), but honest, I still can’t tell what the midrange theory is. I think maybe it’s “if you make enough of them, it doesn’t matter if they’re 2 feet or 12 feet”.
Utah is the best team in college basketball to illustrate the idea that if you’re not making a layup, you’re better off attempting a three. On a good day, the Utes drop 15 threes; on a great day, 20. Against Cal, they made 5, but they won by 37 for +50 in the paint.
Vieira shot 8-for-11. Maybe each of her 5 steals turned into her layup on the other end; it’s reasonable to say she’s over the stomach bug that crippled the Utes a week before.
Pili’s draft stock is rising. She’s now projected around #5 to #7, though I’d prefer she were completely deaf to the buzz. Remember Manute Bol? Sudanese chap, near 8 feet tall and 8 inches wide, one of the finest gentlemen ever to play in the NBA.
Golden State coach Don Nelson didn’t want Bol getting near the ball when the Warriors had possession. He told Bol to go out to a halfline corner, and wait there. Perhaps by accident, a loose ball rolled out to him, and with the shot clock running out, he sank a three.
The crowd went nuts, and it became a thing (to Coach Nelson’s chagrin). When Bol somehow got the ball out there, the Oakland crowds urged him to shoot it, maybe until a mean regression. Which is what I see happening to Alissa Pili — sure, when she was making 55% of her 3FG attempts, all was wonderful. But all wonderful things tend to regress to their mean, and if the Huntsman crowds would stop cheering for her while she’s out there, maybe she’ll resume taking the ball closer to the basket.
I am perhaps going silent for a spell. I have to find a new place to live, and probably a real job. I’m having a hard time concentrating, so some things have to move to a back burner.