The Pac-12 Conference is so strong that you couldn’t rule out #10, #11, and #12 at tournament time.
Cal and Oregon St. haven’t figured it out yet, but when that switch flips, forgotten teams suddenly reappear out of seemingly nowhere.
The conventional wisdom about Cal is that they’re inconsistent. When a team is inconsistent for lack of talent, that’s a tricky fix. When it’s more mental than physical, I think that occasionally self-corrects in March.
The Golden Bears, I thought, are mostly mental cases, but UCLA is kicking their asses with things that appear in the boxscore, like shooting and rebounding. I’m rooting for Kemery Martin to make good in Berkeley, but she’s got as many fouls as points.
I used to tell this story too often and prematurely to make it a good story, but it might be appropriate and good now.
Utah coach Roberts was named to the national coach of the year watch list yesterday. The Utes are ranked #4 by the AP, and a Pac-12 season championship game with #3 Stanford is on the horizon.
In the mid-2000s, I was writing the West Coast Conference. San Francisco, Santa Clara, and St. Mary’s were short drives, and sometimes they were good teams.
San Diego was very good in those days, and their visit to Pacific for a non-conference game in Dec. 2006 coincided with a kids’ chess tournament on campus that weekend.
Perfect, I thought. I’ll work at the chess tournament, watch San Diego stomp the host team, and never have to visit Stockton again.
San Diego won 74-67, but it was close late, and an upset seemed possible. Pacific freshman point guard Jake Kelly shot lights out that night, during Roberts’ first year in Division 1 following 30-win seasons at Chico State.
I thought: There’s a story here, so I’ll stick around to watch Jake Kelly lead Pacific to greatness. Jake was gone in a year. (Know who’s still around? One of the other impressive Pacific players was senior Jerise Freeman — I asked Roberts years later if there were any players she would’ve liked more time with, and she said Freeman, now a Utah assistant coach.)
Looking back at 2007-8: After Jake left, I could’ve stopped following that story — Pacific was a 70-minute drive — but I thought Roberts was creating something, and they never got rid of me. (They tried — for two seasons in a row, they moved the press table closer to the door.)
In 2013, Pacific won the Big West championship, though I didn’t feel like that was the end of the story, either.
Today, Coach Roberts’ Utah team is nearly there, wherever there is. Roberts proved me right — she’s building something great. A dozen years later and 800 miles further away than I anticipated, but here we are.
Utah wing Jenna Johnson is a special player, and one aspect of that is affectionate respect for Coach. She was departing Utah’s practice at Berkeley last month, and Coach introduced her to me. She said: “He and I have known each other for…”
“Sixteen years”, I said.
“Since I started at Pacific”.
“It was unintended. I was there to see San Diego. But I never left.”
Johnson said: “You’re stuck with her.” One of those things that’s completely in how one says it, and Jenna said that with a solid read of why — and for whom — I was at practice.
Pacific, by the way, has won five in a row. Coach Davis’ team peaked in March last season, and the Tigers are doing it again. I wish I could be there for that, but it hasn’t been safe for me to drive the Altamont Pass these days.
LSU at South Carolina didn’t live up to the hype, though I kept myself amused with the thought that the Tigers — ranked #3 in the country — wouldn’t be among the top 4 in the Pacific-12.
Today, each of the six Pac-12 teams with league records greater than 7-7 plays against a conference opponent with a record less than 7-7. In almost every league in the country, that would make for a dreadful boring day, except #7 and #8 in the Pac-12 are Washington State and Oregon, who are vying for NCAA bids.
USC, UCLA, and Utah look closer to March readiness than they have before.
Utah 92 Washington 69
I use 1800 as a back-of-the-envelope benchmark for outstanding shooting. If a player shoots FG 500, 3FG 400, and FT 900 for a season, there’s a fine shooter.
In this game, the entire Utes team shot 508, 552, 933, or 1933. (Gonzaga shooter Brynna Maxwell had an off week, sits at 483, 507, 939, or 1929 for the season.)
Seven Utes made a trey; the only starter who didn’t make two was Johnson, who covered for it by committing 0 fouls and 0 turnovers.
25 of 31 FG were assisted. Each Utah starters contributed 3 assists, except for Palmer, who plays the position expected to make assists.
The Utes made 10-of-14 3FG in the first half, including Palmer’s savvy halfcourt shot at the buzzer. She saw time running out, pulled up, let fly. It’s Haley Van Dyke expressing the Huskies’ feelings in the picture.
Seeking more playing time, freshman Lani White set all kinds of season-and-career highs in 14 minutes.
Utah could do a lot for their image as national title contender with a well-executed win vs. Washington St. Sunday. The Cougars are a stronger opponent, on the NCAA bubble. Utah demonstrated against Oregon St. that they could win after letting a large lead get away. They then demonstrated against stronger opponent Oregon that they could nurse small leads for long stretches. The Utes can still win games by lighting up the gym, like this one vs. Washington, and now they must show that there are no lapses in concentration following a relative laugher.
USC 56 Oregon 51
The Ducks led 27-13 at USC with 5 minutes left in the first half, and Southern Cal set to grinding.
The Trojans clawed and scraped until pulling ahead 40-38 with 1:51 to go in the third, and held that lead for good.
With five games on the schedule Friday, Oregon at USC had the most bearing on the standings. Oregon’s building a post-season resume, while USC had more than that to lose.
USC, Arizona, and UCLA are tied for 4th-6th at 8-5, and the team that emerges from that knot takes the first day of the tournament off. The #5 seed gets Arizona St., while the #6 fetches Oregon St. or Cal. It’s conceivable to finish 13-5 in the Pac-12, then face Oregon St. in the first round. That’s insane — to finish six or eight games above .500 in conference, and your reward for that is Oregon St.
Rayah Marshall is amazing — whether she pulls 20 rebounds or not — as likely as Brink to record the next PT/RB/BK triple. With consistent touch around the basket, she’d remind me of Moses Malone, who’d improve his chances at a three-point play in two steps: 1) improve his offensive rebounding position by bouncing a pass to himself off the board, and if successful 2) using that improved position for a better look at the basket.
Graduate transfer Okako Adika was one rebound shy of season highs in points and rebounds, 18 and 11 (I think more of 11 rebounds vs. Oregon than 12 vs. Penn).
An impressive win for USC, who are either going to go a long way with the Littleton-Adika-Sissoko-Marshall nucleus, or eventually look like they were short a player or two.
UCLA 62 Oregon St. 54
The last 32 seconds of the first half served as a snapshot of the good and bad of Oregon St.
Osborne’s layup at 0:55 gave UCLA a 29-27 lead. Mannen took the ball up. Mitrovic trailed, posted high. Mannen looped a short pass to the post, cut, retreated for a handoff. Mitrovic screened, rolled, caught while a little off balance, and Masikewich blocked her shot.
Mitrovic regained control of the ball, and now she’s got her back to the basket a few feet away. Marotte stepped to the elbow, where Mitrovic connected for an assisted jumper.
I suggest again: Mitrovic is more dangerous as a passer than as a shooter.
Osborne missed a three-pointer, and no one stopped Masikewich from putting back the rebound from under the basket. (Coach Rueck seemed to keep his sense of humor about it.)
Masikewich checked in at 1:30, in the classic move “give someone 2 minutes of rest at the end of the quarter or half, because the referees and sponsors often turn it into 10. UCLA asked Masikewich to play a clean 1:30: No turnovers, no fouls, great. Instead, she contributed a blocked shot (because Mannen’s lob to the rolling Mitrovic took her off balance), an offensive rebound plus putback (because the Beavers slept at the buzzer).
The Beavers went 12-2 to start the 3rd, and in the 4th and 7:13 left, led 51-46. UCLA won the last seven minutes 16-3.
I’m revising my view of Oregon State from No Wants Them in an Elimination Game to A Year Away, Probably. Von Oelhoffen, Mitrovic, and Marotte are all sophomores; Beers and Gardiner are freshmen. I still think if they finish 5-13 or 4-14 that they’ll be the best 5-13 or 4-14 team in Division 1.
I wince at the sound of ESPN announcer Ryan Ruocco’s voice.
I don’t like televised basketball partly for Ruocco and announcers like him, but for Stanford at Arizona he was restrained, blessedly.
With room to talk, color analyst Rebecca Lobo celebrated Stanford’s bigs, noting the Cardinal forwards are many in number and in inches. For a spell, Stanford played 6-7 Betts, 6-4 Brink, and 6-2 Belibi together, and I swear I was reminded of schoolyard games in which the teams were formed by grade level and the ‘big kids’ were undefeated.
Rebecca Lobo is one of the best bigs ever. If she loves your forward rotation, your staff has made some wise decisions.
I said after Utah’s loss at Stanford that 6-1 Young looked lost out there, and Coach Roberts said: “They all did.[The Cardinal] are so _big_”.
I just had the thought that 6-3 Brooke Smith — my favorite center on early ’00s teams — would be their ideal *small forward* today.
When Stanford crushed Washington State, I said it was good to see that Stanford can still do that. Then they hit an iceberg at Washington, which re-cast that shadow of doubt.
Blowing out Arizona in Tucson might be seen as more meaningful than the win at WSU. Arizona’s sweep of the Big 10 teams in two overtime games signaled that they were finally getting into form, but today’s game should raise the question if either of them will find their true selves with three weeks left.
The old saw is that everyone’s intending to peak in March, but if the valley preceding the peak was too low, then how high is the following peak?
Let’s plan for Stanford at Utah in the last game of the season determines the conference champion. If that is the case, how many people will buy a ticket? #2 Indiana drew 11 thousand for their showdown with #5 Iowa earlier in the day, and I think it mattered. Utah might have their mighty student section, but Salt Lake City, I put it to you to show the hell up.
I lost a game when I could’ve forced mate in 7, scored 65 on a test, and dreamed I killed a kid. Maybe I shouldn’t be writing.
Nah, writing will be OK. Maybe it’s publishing I shouldn’t do.
Utah 100 Oregon 92
For Utah, the most encouraging aspect of that win was Oregon not tying the score in the 4th quarter. Two days earlier, the Utes let an 18-point lead dwindle away in Corvallis — if they make a run in the NCAAs, it’ll be because there are no more mishaps like that one.
29 assists on 38 field goals is why I signed up to watch this team.
McQueen’s 4-point play in the first quarter caused me to wonder about the historic success of teams who record those oddities. It’s just one possession, but I wonder if a 4-point play that isn’t merely a freak occurrence might indicate losing the defensive thread.
Crap, I have to drop you here, and go study. 65!? What the fuck.
Back in the years when Coach Roberts’ Pacific teams were losing 23 games per season, my problem while planning a trip to the Big West Conference tournament was figuring how long I wanted to stay. Today, if I planned to attend the Pac-12 tournament — while Utah is on top of the standings — I have to figure when I want to arrive.
Another difference is that the Big West liked having me around, so they’d ask in January if I was coming. The Pac-12, on the other hand, hasn’t answered my inquiry about obtaining media credentials.
UC Davis said a long time ago that I’ll always have a seat there, and would you care for more pizza. That same weekend, Stanford — you come to expect this from Stanford — said, uh, nothing. My brother said: “Stanford is Stanford. UC Davis needs friends.”
Sunday morning, my sister asked about my plans for the day.
“Watching four basketball games”, I said.
“Sounds like your ideal day”, she said.
“When I started doing this as a hobby 17 years ago, I could do four games in a day. Sometimes that included flying and driving, then running back and forth from press conferences. These days, I sit at my computer…”
“And it’s harder”, she said.
“I can’t believe how much harder it is.”
“Everything’s harder”, she said, happily retired for a few months from an industrial ceramics company.
That was 36 hours ago. Washington St. beat Cal because Cal took the third quarter off, Utah won in Oregon for preserving their thin lead throughout the fourth (while the Pac-12 Network spoiled the Stanford-Washington score). Schoolwork kept me busy until 1:30 a.m., after which I watched Arizona and USC play two overtimes. Then I spent Monday in bed.
I’m worn out, and wondering again why I do this. Maybe I’ll remember in a month, when the games move to the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas.
Arizona 81 Southern Cal 75 2OT
The Wildcats swept the Southern California road trip, both games in overtime. Cate Reese scored 6 of a career-high 33 points in the second overtime Sunday at the Galen Center.
I thought Reese would get the conference player of the week award — for factors that should not matter, but do.
Utah’s Alissa Pili had a monster weekend. Against the Oregons, Pili’s Hollinger scores were 15.2 (vs. Beavers) and 27.7 (Ducks). 30 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 0 turnovers in Eugene was big, while 12=for-18 shooting made it huge in the Hollinger calculation.
In comparison, take Cameron Brink’s triple: 16 points, 11 rebounds, 10 blocks, 3 assists merely resulted in a 17.6 Hollinger number because she missed 11 shots. In the same game, Haley Jones had 16 rebounds to go with 8 points and 4 assists, and the Hollinger number in that case was 4.8.
Pili’s 42.9 on the weekend clearly outdid Reese’s 9.4 (vs. UCLA) plus 19.9 (USC), but Reese made her 29.3 in two overtime wins on the 2nd-toughest road trip in the league. Also, Reese played with Shaina Pellington (10.4 + 18.9 makes an equal 29.3). In other words, it’s like Jordan winning all those MVP awards while Stockton and Malone prevented each other.
Then consider: Pili already had a couple of awards, and is likelier to win another. Again using Jordan as an example: Jordan could’ve won the NBA MVP award for 12 years running, but the voters threw a couple to Malone and Barkley for the sake of variety.
I was willing to stay up past my bedtime for Arizona at USC because that was the most critical game on the schedule Sunday in terms of NET impact and seeding determination. The Wildcats and Trojans did not disappoint.
If USC finds one or two reliable offensive threats, they’re gonna be murder in March. Given a little offensive pop, the thing most likely to stop USC from a deep run through the NCAAs would be a crap 7, 8, 9, or 10 seed.
I suspect the selection committee will screw three or four Pac-12 teams with seeds between 7-10, striving to avoid another disaster like 2021. Every Pac team but one was crammed into the same half of the bracket, and Arizona — the one that wasn’t — reached the final. Not good for TV ratings or national morale, you know.
I have more to say, but I’m trying to be a good boy and stay ahead of the schoolwork game. What they don’t tell you about college is that it’s a lot more fun at 60 than it was at 20.
At 60, you don’t care about GPA or how your class schedule fits with your intended career path, which turned out to be bullshit. We think we’re gonna do one thing after we’re done with college, but I’m on my fifth career track. If you’d told me when I was 18 that nothing I was doing then would exist in the 21st century job market, I would’ve burst into flames.
So far, the best game Cal has played all season. Senior guard Kemery Martin has 5 points, 6! rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal in 19 minutes. Assuming Cal gave her a leadership role when she arrived, the Golden Bears might finally play up to its potential if Kemery — long ago, Utah’s high school player of the year — continues to play up to hers.
