It’s not impossible that any team in the nation wins 13 games in a row from here

What’s become more obvious since Thursday?

Stanford is lessened in the absence of Cameron Brink.

Oregon State is lessened in the absence of Raegan Beers.

Washington State is lessened in the absence of Charlisse Leger-Walker.

Colorado is lessened in the absence of Jaylyn Sherrod. I’m sometimes capable of understatement.

I still think UCLA is lessened in the absence of Emily Bessoir, but that team’s so good, not much.

Utah would be better if Gianna weren’t in a cast, Jenna weren’t bleeding, and whatever’s the matter with Isabel this time weren’t the matter.

With three games remaining, one game separates nos. 2 through 5 in the standings, and the one who finishes at 5 has to play on opening night in Las Vegas.

I said Thursday that among the 7-12 teams, Arizona is a likely spoiler if they pressed a higher-ranked team into a rash of turnovers. Stanford made a season-high in their home loss to Arizona, but I’m not sure the Wildcats pushed them into it as much as the Cardinal just kinda fell apart?

Should Southern Cal thrash Utah at the Galen Center tomorrow, I can probably cancel flight and hotel reservations for Salt Lake. If Padilla and Forbes continue to play as they did against Colorado, USC ends up in Cleveland for the last weekend.

It probably hasn’t crossed Coach Gottlieb’s mind — basketball coaches can’t see more than a couple days ahead — but this is the kind of storyline that national media salivates over: NBA Cavaliers assistant coach Gottlieb returns to Cleveland for an NCAA championship in view.

Last time I exchanged words with Coach Gottlieb, I said I couldn’t believe she was actually in Cleveland unless she sent me a picture of His Honor Kevin Johnson in a Cavs uniform from the walls of her new office.

Big game tonight, eh?

UCLA and Utah play an unusual Thursday game for ESPN’s sake.

Who’s starting at the 3 for Utah tonight? I think it’ll be Wilke. Matyson looks like a confident shooter lately. Dasia Young hit a game-winner in traffic as a 6th man.

Remember what a nice surprise Reese Ross was, many games ago? I’ll guess that big Bruin Lauren Betts makes zero 3-point plays, and Utah makes 15 treys as win conditions.

I reckon 13-5 will get two byes. At 9-5, UCLA and Utah would have to run the table, giving ESPN reason to illustrate the strength of the Pac-12. If both teams play well, viewers across the country can think: Cool! Which of those Pac-12 teams is joining our conference.

12-6 earns one bye, I think. Six teams could finish at 12-6. It’s too soon to work on the tiebreak possibilites, especially with this in mind: Which team in the bottom half can best spoil things?

Arizona could, if they pressed a higher-ranked team into a cascade of mistakes.

Cal could. That team hasn’t been together long — fully integrating Krimili and Mastova is the Golden Bears’ challenge.

Washington could. I’d been counting on the Washington teams to be within sneaking range at the end (like defending tournament champion Washington State did last year), but the Cougars lost Leger-Walker. The Huskies lost three recent games in overtime (two of the three going to multiple OT).

Washington could use a high-visibility threat to emerge among them. I can’t name one Husky — if they had someone memorable, that’s worth one upset in these last four games, plus surviving the first night in Las Vegas.

Oregon could, if the Ducks could play tall for 40 minutes.

Oregon St. 79 UCLA 77

Utah and Oregon State both won at the buzzer Friday.

Oregon St. 79 UCLA 77

I watched this game twice.

Score was tied 72-72 with 1:00 remaining. Van Oelhoffen stole the ball at 0:39.8, to deter Betts from an FGA beneath the basket.

At 0:15.5, T. Gardiner made 2 FT to put the home team in the lead. UCLA coach Close couldn’t believe the call against Betts.

From the televised point of view, the ballhandler is turned away from the camera, it didn’t look a foul. Not a call to make with 15 seconds left with the score tied.

The especially-notable officiating began at 9:04 of the second quarter.

Flashback to 9:04 2d.

Bruin Rice drew a shooting foul. In the act of shooting, Rice floored Beaver Beers.

It took seven minutes for the officials to sort things out. Rice got two FT for being fouled, but gave two FT back for fouling Beers, which the stripes upgrade to intentional.

Rice’s elbow and Beers’ face came together with enough force to knock Beers out of the game, but to me, it looked like an accident.

From Raegan Beers’ game-ending injury, the Pac-12 Network person got material for the final 29 minutes. I counted the elaborate recaps of the Beers incident: 7.

Very big Betts clearly had a real mismatch against Rees, about half the width of Beers. Betts shot 11-of-15, which the analyst charged to Rees. Look at this way: If Betts shot 10-of-15, that would’ve been worse than her season average.

Every four in-game minutes, the broadcaster reminded us about the injury to Beers. Rees drew her third foul before halftime, Beers recap.

At 3:13 of the 2nd, Beaver Marotte was cited for excessive contact during a shot. That was the second time UCLA benefited from a foul upgrade, and OSU coach Rueck drew a technical. At halftime, Rueck described the 2nd quarter as bizarre. End flashback.

The third strikingly-odd foul call was with 0:15.5 left in the game.

The lead changed hands FOUR times in the last 15.5 seconds. (The old joke is “I want my last two minutes on the physical plane to be the last two minutes of an NBA game”. The final one minute of UCLA at Oregon St. took 14 minutes in real time.)

0:15.5 72-74 Gardner FT
0:06.6 75-74 Dugilic 3FGM
0:02.3 75-76 Van Oelhoffen FT
0:01.1 77-76 Betts catch-and-shoot of inbound pass
0:00 77-79 Van Oelhoffen 3FGM catch-and-shoot of inbound pass

Media has reported for two days that people have said it was the best finish they’d ever seen in a basketball game any gender, any level.

USC 58, Oregon St. 50 on Sunday wasn’t as good a game.

  • words

Aw, snap!

Sometimes you hear “snap!” as a general exclamation of dismay or bewilderment. A young friend of mine said she’d try to make that her ‘new word’, and for the rest of the day, she reacted to everything with “aw, snap!”. It didn’t stick with her, but it evidently has never left me.

Stanford and Cal aren’t hosting the mountain teams in this, the last season of Pac-12 play.

I have hotel and air booked for NCAA rounds 1 and 2 at the Huntsman Center March 22 and 23. Those dates were in place when Utah presumed to be a Final Four team, without a doubt hosting the first two rounds. These days, there is some doubt.

By then, I’ll have been living in a new place for a week. That’s not going according to plan, either.

Games of 2/11-12

USC 81 Arizona 64

The host Trojans assisted on 22 of their 27 FGM, and they did so in the darndest fashion.

Juju Watkins threatened to break down her defender one-on-one, until one or two Wildcats went to help. Then Watkins gave up the ball to get 4 assists, and if the ball kept moving, Padilla had 7, Forbes and Bigby 4 each.

USC probably doesn’t care how they win, as long as they continue winning.

When Watkins scored 51 at Stanford, the witty halftime question for Coach Gottlieb was how’d she like it if they won by Ju going for 50 while the others did not (which was what happened). “I wouldn’t get mad at it”, said Coach Gottlieb.

USC is no longer the team I watched dominate Fullerton St. in December. Every Trojan made an assist, 25 on 33 FGM in sum.

I thought they might be Gottlieb’s best team yet, displacing her 2013 Cal team with multiple professionals-to-be. Fullerton St. is #251 NET, however, while half of USC’s conference opponents are in the top 25.

Which conference is Arizona joining after the Pac-12 dissolves? If the Wildcats are going to a league where they’re expected to stand out, they shall.

Nebraska 82 Iowa 79

Someone somewhere is laying the blame for Iowa’s upset loss on Caitlin Clark, who scored 0 points in the fourth quarter. It was the first time that Clark didn’t score in the fourth, and she missed a 3-pointer that would’ve tied the game at 0:05. She was 8 points shy of tying Kelsey Plum’s all-time scoring record, and someone, I’m sure, will surmise that she plainly choked.

Rubbish, but I wrote that in a minute without contemplation, and it’ll strike a chord with sports bar simpletons.

I haven’t heard anyone ask lately whether Iowa will fall apart in the absence of Monika Czinano. That issue is settled — Clark is improved, while the most points scored this season by a Hawkeye is 47 by Hanna Stuelke.

Oregon St. 65 Colorado 59

The Beavers led by 22 after three quarters. I can’t say the game wasn’t as close as the final score suggests, because I’m not sure how Colorado won the fourth quarter 21-5. Had the Buffaloes finally solved Beaver defense. Did OSU lapse mentally.

Go back one year, when I was in love with Oregon St. After the Beavers lost their second conference game, I said they were the best 2-loss team in the league. Then I said they were the best 3-loss team, and 4-loss team.

I had to stop, because the Beavers continued losing, and calling them the best n-loss, best n+1-loss, best n+2-loss team might’ve resembled damning them with faint praise, or mockery.

This 2023-24 Beavers are smaller and faster than the 2022-23 Beavers, which has enabled them to play better team defense.

Smaller and faster also prompts more ‘4 out, 1 in’ on offense, which is so beneficial for Raegan Beers that her FG% is better than her FT%.

Maybe I was right about peaking too soon as a hazard for Colorado. Today I wonder how much room for improvement is in Oregon St.

Utah 70 Oregon 48

After an injury hobbles a team, one of the dumb questions that sports media asks repeatedly — in the case of Kneepkens, I did — is ‘who makes up the lost production’.

What can a coach say besides ‘everyone’?

In theory, it’s everyone, but there’s usually a standout in execution. Utah’s mostly been playing short two — Vieira became a MIP candidate in Palmer’s absence. Wilke is blossoming during Young’s recovery, improving from 5 ppg to 11 ppg since the SoCals visited Huntsman.

Dasia Young became a starter Dec. 7, and three days later filled the all-important role as 2nd-high-scorer-after-Pili vs. South Carolina. In the Utes’ win vs. UCLA Jan. 22 made 4-of-6 3FG, when it looked like she might establish herself as a major producer in place of Kneepkens.

Then she regressed to 2-for-6 and 4-for-11 at the Oregons. The senior is a streaky shooter — only once did her FG% fall between than .400 and .556.

Young’s defense somewhat compensates the streaky shooting. Utah doesn’t have another defender like Dasia Young. Johnson is a sponge for offensive fouls, and Vieira surprises ballhandlers
from behind — they do their best defensive work on the ball; Young frustrates them off the ball.

Wilke’s a better fit in Utah’s offense; Young’s a special defender.

Young also has two years of experience as a Ute, which serves as a tiebreaker (if you want to look at it that way). Wilke isn’t a typical sophomore; she started 29 games for Wisconsin.

We can compare them, but we’d rather have them both available and playing at the next level.

It’s 2:28 a.m. before Sunday game day

I’ve yet to watch Friday’s games, other than Oregon St. 58 Utah 44. That game was so deflating, I forgot about basketball..

Fuckin’ Oregon State, man.

The Beavers beat Utah Sunday; with emphasis, and at Salt Lake.

Five Utes of nine made 0 assists. Maybe 200 teams always have five players making 0 assists. But for Utah, that’s death.

Next season, you’ll see teams adapting themselves to Utah’s no-midrange offense. TV people will say:

“Coach Shlabotnik watched Utah play last season. Lynne Roberts’ team passes the ball around until someone shoots from either ‘at the basket’, or ‘behind the line’.”

You’ve got the picture, but the TV analyst is speaking over a highlight reel, directed to leave no dead air. “

“When you’ve got players across the court who can all finish, and all shoot threes, you can aim to maximize each possession with exceptional ball movement, then attempt solely a high-percentage layup or a high-yield three. There’s a great book The Midrange Theory by Seth Partnow, who worked for NBA Milwaukee. Maybe I misunderstood what Partnow was saying, but I thought his book said ‘the midrange theory’ is that to be most efficient, no midrange shooting. “

He goes on, running out of things to say: “Roberts and her staff and her players are a team modeled from a science book”, then goes on a tangent. “The Midrange Theory is a great follow-up to Basketball on Pa…”

You could turn off the sound, and wish for separate audio channels, one without comment.

Or you could hear at a sports bar: “They never shut up. ” Beat. “They’d better goddamn win tomorrow. “

There were games last week

Among the six Pac-12 teams above .500, four of them are playing against a team below .500.

The other two — Oregon St. and Utah — play each other. One-half game separates the Beavers and the Utes, so there are heavy tiebreaker implications.

I haven’t been writing, which is the surest indicator that I’m not OK. Ask me “how are you?”, and I can lie well enough to fool myself.

I can’t lie about “are you writing?”.

I didn’t realize that I wasn’t writing until I said to myself: It’s time to write about this weekend’s games, and you never got around to last weekend. That means, call a doctor.

There were games last week:

USC 79 Cal 69

I attended that game. Two days after Juju Watkins scored 51 for USC at Stanford, she led the Trojans with 29.

You might say that was good news, holding her to 29, said Cal coach Smith. She did not want to talk about the discrepancy in free throw attempts. The different in FTA sort of suggested to me that USC got a bit of star treatment.

Colorado 80 Washington 57

My prediction for Colorado at Washington was that it might not hit a 90 total, like Colorado 47 Washington 42. Two of the best defensive teams in the nation, while Colorado has been missing layups.

Then the Buffaloes had 50 at halftime.

Coach Payne talks to the media with small words that we’ll understand, and I think an air of bemusement at how perfunctory it is, talking to media.

During Colorado’s narrow escape from Washington State Friday, a Pac-12 Network host asked gravely what the Buffaloes had to do differently in the second half. Coach said: “Make layups”. She said she’s appealing to them to play together, and let the games flow to them.

The Buffaloes clearly had it together last Sunday.

This is a photo from Colorado at Washington Friday:

One-point game near the end of the 3rd, Washington St.’s #1 Wallack has just plowed through Colorado’s screener Sharrod. Play stops, referees huddle. Basketball is never better than when the officials confer for minutes over the replay moinitor.

The Pac-12 Network gives us a look at Wallack waiting for the verdict. I am fascinated by the man in the seats, writing in his yellow pad. I get the feeling he’s taking notes about the game, rather than, say, compiling his grocery list.

Washington State, the defending tournament champion, lost the best player in school history to an ACL injury. It’s more disruptive for them than it was for Utah losing Kneepkens. Utah got a month to tinker before conference play began; Washington St. is abruptly on red alert.

When Colorado reached #3 in the AP poll, I said the worst thing that could happen to them is peaking too soon, though I didn’t think that would strike a group stuffed with graduate students and seniors. However, at Washington, the Buffaloes made many turnovers, while missing layups.

Utah 83 Washington 65

83 is the most anyone’s scored against the Huskies all year, and the Utes made it look like it was more about them imposing their will than an off-day for the defense.

Ines Vieira and Isabel Palmer played together for a dozen minutes. That was a dream of mine, but I didn’t think it would cross Coach Roberts’ mind.

Some of my favorite Phoenix Suns teams played Kevin Johnson and Jeff Hornacek together, as a 1 and a 1.5. The Suns were usually shorter everywhere, with Dan Majerle at 3, with Eddie Johnson and Tom Chambers as “bigs”.

People think Coach Dantoni’s “Seven Seconds or Less” Suns was the fastest Suns team, with Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa, but the group from the turn of the ’90s was faster at every position.

My favorite photo from NBA play. The Honorable Kevin Johnson, Dan Majerle, and Jeff Hornacek.

Off-target at Oregon, Utah next visits Oregon St., who just upset Colorado

I venture that had Utah visited the Oregon State Beavers Friday rather than the Oregon Ducks, it would’ve been Utah’s misfortune instead of Colorado’s. The Beavers, newly entered in the Top 25, beat #3 Colorado 68-62 in Corvallis. Meanwhile, #16 Utah sputtered at Eugene.

The Pac-12 Network reported OSU coach Rueck said that the Beavers have figured out how to win the close games they’ve been losing.

One of the first things OSU had to learn was how to distribute the load to someone other than sophomore truck Raegan Beers. Beers had a season-low 6 points — 13 below her average — while 7 FGA was Beers’ fewest in a conference game.

In OSU’s 73-70 double overtime win vs. Arizona Jan. 12, Beers scored their first 7 points in the 2nd OT, and finished their defensive stop while leading 71-70 with 18 seconds left. In sum, 20 points, 20 rebounds, in 42 minutes. Beers can do that, but against Colorado’s defense, it had to be a wider team effort.

Freshman guard Hunter scored a career-best 16 (guarded by Sharrod and Wetta!).

Senior post Rees, one of Utah’s transfers, was shooting 4-for-20 in conference games, averaging 1.5 pts. She made every attempt Friday, for 7 points.

The Beavers nursed a small lead throughout the 3rd. Blacklock scored 3 points to widen a 1-point lead to 4 with 0:39 left. She understood how much it meant.

Von Oelhoffen isn’t shooting well from the field lately. But she was 9-for-9 at the FT line Friday.

6-7 junior forward Heide plays seldom. Except for 1 rebound Friday, she would’ve recorded “5 billion” in 5 minutes. Her job was to throw a different defensive look at Vonleh, and with Oregon State leading by 1, Vonleh missed a jumper, made a turnover and a foul. Heide gets credit for an excellent night that doesn’t show in the box, and so does Coach Rueck for (as the cliche goes) pushing the right buttons.

You might say the Beavers did everything a little better than the Buffaloes did. The Beavers shot a higher percentage, but did they play better defense?

Coach Payne said on Pac-12 Network at halftime that the Buffaloes had to convert more layups. She smiled, and apologized for unsophisticated analysis. And she was right — besides Sharrod’s 7-for-14, Colorado shot 12-for-36.

Utah 58 Oregon 48

I didn’t express opinion after Utah’s best win of the season vs. UCLA. I didn’t want to sound full of restored optimism because a hangover performance at Oregon would have been some buzzkill.

Oregon began 21-7, a reminder that Utah is brand new at beating teams as good as USC and UCLA. Avoiding uninspired play against weaker opponents is for veteran teams, which Utah is not.

Utah misses Gianna Kneepkens’ on-court personality. Pili is quiet, Johnson is quiet (Jenna had a double Friday!? I had no idea.), McQueen is quiet, Young is quiet. Gianna is an electric presence (when the TV camera is on the Utah bench, it’s the injured kid working hardest).

Vieira has some sort of booster rocket in case of emergencies, like moving off the screen at the end of regulation vs. UCLA.

When preparing for Utah, opponents have to talk about their ballhandlers always knowing where Vieira is.

Speaking of coaches pushing the proverbial right buttons, note Matyson Wilke’s FGs in the first two periods came to end Utah droughts of 5 minutes and 4 minutes.

Oregon St. and Utah are both cultivating momentum. The Beavers are building a case as one of the Pac-12’s at-large teams. The Utes have discovered that the team goal is achievable short-handed.

Oregon St. learned it could win close games against anyone. Utah learned it could compete at the top in Kneepkens and Palmer’s absence. It makes sense that an OSU win will be close at the end, whereas a Utah win might appear more comfortable.

Before any games were played in November, the expection for today’s Utah at Oregon St. game favored the Utes. The way things are going, the Beavers don’t lose at home.

Utah 94 UCLA 81 OT

Utah outscored UCLA 22-9 in overtime, and the #16 Utes won 94-81 at home Monday vs. the #2 Bruins.

Utah junior Kennady McQueen scored 8 of her game-high 21 in the overtime period. McQueen also had a game-high 9 rebounds.

UCLA took their first lead of the 2nd half with 0:54 remaining, 71-70. A UCLA free throw made it 72-70 with 0:04 left. Then Utah guard Ines Vieira turned Utah’s out-of-bounds play into the score-tying layup.

Utah’s 22 points scored in overtime was 4 fewer than the record 26, scored by Virginia Tech vs. NC State, Jan. 28, 2021.

Three Utes scored season highs: McQueen’s 21, plus Dasia Young and Matyson Wilke with 16.

If these four teams were the semifinalists in the tournament, I’d be OK with that

I’m eager to play chess Saturday, because I haven’t completely been at the board on Friday nights. I’ve played three draws against three lower-rated opponents so I could get home to watch basketball.

It occurred to me that Coach Rob would talk to me about this. When you’re not playing hard, you don’t want the kind of conversation with Roberts in which she does all the talking.

Coach might say that if I’m going to show up, I’d better compete, else it’s a waste of everyone’s time. And I’m not as useful to the readers, either, if I’m rethinking games that I didn’t have to waste.

Coach told me to walk, and write the observations. 11 kilometers since then, and I’ve seen some weird shit:

A 36-inch flat screen facedown at the bottom of a freeway ramp. Like someone had done a terrible job loading the car, but the damage wasn’t as costly as I thought. Neither a computer display nor a television, but the front door to a Westinghouse appliance. Though I don’t know how much a microwave oven or washing machine costs, and maybe losing that part on the freeway was someone’s disaster.

Riders of recumbent bicycles look pleasantly relaxed. I can’t see the drivers in a Smart car, but I imagine they look terrified.

I have to admit that I find geolocation games most inspirational. With teammates and opposition numbering tens or hundreds of thousands, agents explore their communities in search of real-life objects that represent value in-game. The Berkeley Chess School erected playground equipment when it moved into a new space, and the climbing-and-sliding fort in the backyard was worth hundreds of points after I captured it for The Resistance. I think that’s funny, and fortunate: Because the medical offices next door fenced off the chess school playground, so the real world is fortressing a resistance outpost.

UCLA 76 Colorado 68

UCLA and Colorado were within one point of each other for much of that game, and the cliche about being much closer than the final score indicated is applicable. I got a sense that the host Buffaloes became a bit hesitant with 3 minutes left, because their top 7 had 22 fouls, and the outstanding Bruins capitalized on it.

Yesterday I thought Colorado had grown into being the best team in the Pac-12, though peaking too soon might be hazardous for them. The Buffaloes solved that problem by being taught a lesson by UCLA.

Betts and Dugelic both made doubles, but Charisma Osborne’s 0 turnovers was special.

Utah 78 USC 58

That was the best defense Utah has played yet. Sometimes I think the weakest aspect of the Utes is help defense. Against USC, host Utah defended so well on the perimeter that they required much less help. Every Trojan but Watkins was hindered.

Utah also resumed doing well what they usually do best: Assisting each other’s field goals.

Did I say yesterday that I wished for Alissa Pili to take fewer 3-point attempts? With the better ball movement all around, Pili found space to shoot 5-of-6. I am humbled to silence.

Forty years ago, when I carried a clipboard for Coach Everett “Skip” Mohatt, I’d catch him saying things that I found questionable, and questioned them. During practice, Coach barked: “Riley! How many shots did you take last game? You took 37…”

“Coach, he too…”, I said.

“Shut up, Frisco. You took 37 shots last game, Riley That’s as many as Wilt Chamberlain took the night he scored 100 points!”

“Coach, I thi…”

Coach grinned, practice resumed. Maybe Riley got the point. I learned years later while teaching chess: Not to let the facts get in the way of teaching or coaching.

At another practice, Coach gave each guard a ball, told them to dribble while tagging the forwards out. Perhaps as encouragement to the ballhandlers, Coach said: “Some players dribble faster than they run”.

Then Coach started the game. I started to say: Guards, line up abreast, but Coach said: “Don’t help them”, and chaos ensued.

“How’s dribbling faster than running even possible, Coach?” I said.

I did not think that possible, but I bring it up because Ines Vieira might be one of those unicorns who cover ground faster while dribbling than while moving without the ball. Against USC, Vieira demonstrated that not only is she the fastest player on the court, she has a nose for the ball.

The fastest human I’ve seen playing basketball was Leandro Barbosa, who won a title as a Golden State Warrior, and won a sixth man award as a Phoenix Sun. The Suns ran a play in which Barbosa ran behind two screens near the sideline while Steve Nash brought the ball up. Except for Nash, there are nine guys on that wing, so there’s this gulf of basketball floor ahead of him. Nash makes a hard pass into that space, and it looks like he’s made an insane turnover. Barbosa emerges from behind those the screens to catch the ball on the run. Nash and Barbosa connected that pass without sight of each other.

I was nuts to think that Issy Palmer would play at full speed in her return from 13 or 14 games off.

I thought Wisconsin was a “football school”. It occurred to me that Matyson Wilke could be the best Badger I’ve ever seen, especially if he continues to play like she did against USC and Stanford.

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